
Conditions for gold rally could crush other assets
By V. Phani Kumar & Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Dec. 18, 2009, 10:06 a.m. EST
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Several analysts predict a rise in gold prices to dizzying heights in the next two years, but if those forecasts prove true, even gold bugs will need to stay alert to ensure that gains in the metal aren't overwhelmed by losses on other parts of their portfolio.
That's because the economic conditions under which one would expect gold to thrive resemble an investor's nightmare -- possible hyperinflation, collapse of the U.S. dollar or a surge in yields on Treasuries -- may be conditions under which other asset classes such as fixed income and equities could take a major hit.
"For gold to rise further, people have to continue to be fearful of economic recessionary conditions worsening instead of improving, political developments both at home and globally, and financial markets deteriorating instead of continuing to improve," said Jeffrey Christian, a managing director at CPM Group.
Mark O'Byrne, a director at bullion dealer GoldCore said gold could "rally much higher in the event of another systemic crisis where large banks, corporates and or even countries go bankrupt."
It could also go much higher in the event of serious inflation or stagflation, in the event of a dollar crisis or an international monetary crisis, or a serious geopolitical incident, he said. And "at least one of these scenarios is quite possible in 2010 or 2011."
Those scenarios aren't at all friendly to the rest of an investor's portfolio.
Gold futures rose as high as $1,218 an ounce in early December before sliding back to the low $1,100 area, where it traded on Friday.
The right stuff
A number of analysts say gold could see new highs over the next few years, thanks to the flood of liquidity in the global financial system in the wake of quantitative easing measures by central banks around the world in the wake of last year's financial crisis.
"The right fundamentals for gold ... remain in place and look set to remain in place for the foreseeable future," said O'Byrne. "This makes $3,000 per ounce gold an increasingly likely long-term price target."
Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International said the precious metal's "more likely to hit $3,000 than $800 in the next two years."
"I am bullish longer term on the U.S. and global economies, but ... I feel the die has been cast for lower fiat currency prices in years to come and a global shift out of the dollar and into commodities as the new reserve currency," he added.
Kerr listed hyperinflation, more job losses in the U.S., negative interest rates for an extended period of time, efforts to price crude oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar and attempts by China to move a larger part of its foreign currency holdings into gold as conditions that would support a further increase in the yellow metal's prices.
A number of other commentators have also been known for their bullish views on gold.
CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, for instance, has for a while maintained that gold could hit $3,360 by the end of this decade. Economic analyst Marc Faber, Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg, investor Jim Rogers, investment manager David Tice have all been reported in the media as saying that gold prices could reach a range between $2,000 and $3,000.
And Amerifutures managing director Patrick Kerr lists gold purchases by central banks, "the deepest pockets of them all," as one of his 10 reasons why gold could shoot up to between $5,000 and $10,000 an ounce.
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